Saturday January 5, 2008 - The Markets & Stuff

This being my first blog entry, it should probably be really exciting, dynamic and cause readers to want to bookmark this page and make it a daily part of their everyday routine. Well.... errr.. uhh... Damn, this writing stuff is tougher than I thought.

I guess I'll just start with my view of the market and trading. Since I work full time and travel extensively, I'm not a daily trader. I'm more the type that wants to catch a trend, ride the wave and jump off when it goes south. Yea, me and everyone else. My School of hard knocks was the 2001 .com meltdown. I watched a portfolio that was up 400% go to down 40% in 2 years. The "it will come back" mantra was repeated every time I looked at the statements. Finally I figured out the whole "buy and hold" thingy just wasn't the way to go. Since then I've tried to learn and combo of TA mixed in with some Fundy analysis and have done OK. I emphasize OK. I'm not retiring on the winnings any time soon. I also have no problem saying I'm way more conservative than I should be.

So my current view of the market you ask? I think we're closing in on the bottom of a 3 yr. channel on the S&P and the Naz. I'm buying some selective growth stocks That I also think are at or near their channel bottoms. My Chart analysis is real basic. I draw a line. Sometimes I do a Fibb retracement. I'll look for simple patterns like cup 'n handles and head and Shoulders. I also try and read TA from folks I consider way smarter than me.

A lot of those guys are here: http://www.traders-talk.com/mb2/index.php?showforum=2

Most of these dudes are professional traders, run hedge funds, or are financial managers of some sort or another. They have forgotten more about Technical analysis than I'll ever know. Sometimes I'm totally lost in the specifics, but I'm usually able to get the bottom line of their forecasts. Speaking of forecasts, check the link at the top of that fourm - The daily and weekly polls. This group seems to be spot on when there's a strong majority opinion.

Some of the posters that really seem to nail it:

airedale88 - Knows more about cycles than Harley Davidson. Has said we're at the bottom of 4.5 year and 20 week cycles and I'm believing him: http://www.traders-talk.com/mb2/index.php?showtopic=81890

Hiker - Consistantly one of the best traders on there. Makes a lot of strong calls. Has a blog on the site as well: http://www.traders-talk.com/mb2/index.php?automodule=blog&blogid=26&

Teaparty - Draws some incredble charts, understands the Elliott wave (wish he'd explain it to me) his Blog: http://www.traders-talk.com/mb2/index.php?automodule=blog&blogid=30&

Jnavin - One of my favorite reads beacuse I understand what he's saying :) - here's his blog: http://www.traders-talk.com/mb2/index.php?automodule=blog&blogid=4&

Frac Man - Does this thing called fractals. I kinda get it...... sort of like I kinda got Trig in school. Seems to nail repetitve market patterns pretty well. His Blog: http://www.traders-talk.com/mb2/index.php?automodule=blog&blogid=20&

I also read some excellent Blogs -

For Daily updates and short term market direction, nobody is better than Brian Shannon: http://www.alphatrends.blogspot.com/
Brian puts it on video everyday in an easy to understand format. If your a short term, swing or day trader, this is must read stuff.

I also like Trading Goddess Blog: http://www.tradinggoddess.blogspot.com/
TG has great daily updates, a ton of solid contibutors and lots of eye candy.
The eye candy thing kinda makes me forget what I'm reading sometimes.

Some other great Blogs:

Howard Lindzon: http://www.howardlindzon.com/
Chris Perruna: http://www.howardlindzon.com/
Dinosaur Trader: http://dinosaurtrader.blogspot.com/

I read the Street.com - but mainly to see what Cramer will implode next. I've actually faded him on a few shorts. I think there are some blogs dedicated to it. If he ever learned to read a chart, he'd be really dangerous. Well, maybe not. His show is entertainment.

I also like Investor Business Daily. I dropped my subscription a year ago, beacuse it seemed too many people read it. That was dumb. I need to sign back up for it again. Thanks for reminding me.

So here's what I own now and what I'm looking to buy near term:

ATVI
ABB
LIFC
BUCY
BGC
GS
HOLX
ZINC
RIMM
DWSN

I' m also long ETFS: SPY, QQQQ, BKF

You'll notice there are no solar stocks in my list. My opinion is Solar is another .com bubble.
When it busts, it's going to be quick and brutal. And just like the .dot coms, there will be so much overhead supply in the institutuions, that even if solar does become an affordable alternative energy supply, the stocks will spin their wheels for years. I'm not shorting any of them, as the short interest is so high the squeeze is brutal every time they have another spurt up. Just my opinion, I could be totally wrong.

Well that's it for Post numero uno - time to watch some football.
Unfortunatly, not my beloved Chiefs - but I'll save that rant for another time