Wednesday, February 13, 2008

Investors Business Daily called this a follow thru day....

Nasdaq Follows Through On New Rally On Headline-Filled Day For The Market
BY JONAH KERI
INVESTOR'S BUSINESS DAILY

Posted 2/13/2008
The Nasdaq followed through Wednesday, banking big gains on a headline-filled day.
The tech-laden index jumped 2.3%, closing at its intraday high.
The Dow industrials and S&P 500 both rose 1.4%. The NYSE composite gained 1.2%.
Volume rose by less than 1% on the Nasdaq compared with Tuesday's level. NYSE volume eased 7%.

The Nasdaq's action met IBD's standards for a follow-through rally confirmation. A few rallies have started with only slightly higher volume on a follow-through. The August follow-through showed marginally higher trade. It triggered a lucrative rally, one that delivered big gains for many leading stocks.

Every bull market has started with a follow-through — a major price gain in higher volume than the prior session, on Day 4 or later of a rally try. However, not every follow-through yields a bull market.

What does that mean for you? Don't rush back into the market waving cash around recklessly. Only a few top-rated stocks have broken out of bases. You'll want to see more positive action from leaders to bolster the fledgling rally.

Don't pile into stocks that are bouncing off their bottoms. The last thing you want to do is buy a load of bottom fish on full margin in a few days. That kind of impulsive trading behavior leaves you vulnerable to a market pullback, and some painful losses.

If and when breakouts occur, trade wisely. Start by taking a half position in a stock. You can fill out the rest of your purchase if the stock proves its mettle. Say you have $10,000 to invest in a high-quality stock that's breaking out of a base. Buy $5,000 worth of shares as the stock crosses its optimal buy point in heavy volume. If it rises 2% from there, buy another $3,000 worth of shares. If it rises a bit more, you can round out your position with the remaining $2,000.
With such a disciplined approach, you'll only increase your exposure if the market is indeed working.

To be sure, there are plenty of reasons to be cautious. For one, the correction lasted just over three months, which is not a lot of time to reset the broad market for a sizable uptrend. We also haven't seen major rotations among industry groups. Steel and fertilizer stocks are right back on top.

If you didn't use the market's correction as an opportunity to build a watch list of buy candidates, it's not too late. Use IBD and Investors.com to troll for top stocks setting up in sound price bases. If you find a stock that's a new name, rather than some old leader trying to make a comeback, even better. By doing the research ahead of time, you'll be prepared when a breakout occurs.

A strong retail sales report got the market off to a fast start. Retail sales rose 0.3%, topping forecasts for a 0.3% decline. Sales excluding autos climbed 0.3%, beating forecasts for a 0.2% gain. President Bush signed the $168 billion economic stimulus package, which the White House hopes will help stave off a recession. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson also said the government would use "aggressive action" to help homeowners hurt by the subprime mortgage crisis. Federal Reserve chief Ben Bernanke is scheduled to testify before a Senate committee on banking and housing Thursday.

Late in the day, word that News Corp. (NWS) was considering an alliance with Yahoo (YHOO) helped stoke a finishing kick for the market. The prospective deal would reportedly spin off Fox Interactive Media, which includes popular social networking site MySpace and other assets, into Yahoo in exchange for a stake in Yahoo. The deal would be worth about $15 billion. Yahoo recently rejected a $44.6 billion buyout bid from Microsoft. (MSFT) The software giant is reportedly mulling a sweetened offer.

Meanwhile, several individual stocks also lifted the broad market. Chip equipment maker Applied Materials (AMAT) reported a surge in orders for machines that make flat-screens. The company also got a boost from rising demand for solar-power-related components. That sent its stock up 1.84, or 10%, to 19.91 in nearly triple its normal trade. Led by Applied Materials, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index surged 3%. First Solar (FSLR) topped Q4 earnings estimates by 24 cents a share. That sent its stock rocketing to a 30% gain in massive volume.

So is this the start of the next bull rally? Hard to say.
I asked the question on a previous post if January 23 was a climax bottom?

A 20% decline usually results in at least 1 test of that low.... But we didn't get it.
Not even close - Hmmm

Bull trap?

0 comments: