Teaparty charts the S&P 100 (OEX)possibilities.
The first chart is a longer term view of the S&P 100 (OEX) with support lines from July 2005
The second is the 30 day chart and also highlights NAVs analysis (previous post)
Thursday, February 14, 2008
Very smart dudes from Traderstalk.com
NAV is another phenomenal chartist from TT:
He is calling for a retest of the January lows - I strongly agree.
One scenario shows the bullish divergence in the MCO and that would confirm a bottom.
The Bearish MCO divergence shows the possible crash scenario......
He also notes how these divergences marked worked over the past past 4 years on his Blog:
He is calling for a retest of the January lows - I strongly agree.
One scenario shows the bullish divergence in the MCO and that would confirm a bottom.
The Bearish MCO divergence shows the possible crash scenario......
He also notes how these divergences marked worked over the past past 4 years on his Blog:
Wednesday, February 13, 2008
Investors Business Daily called this a follow thru day....
Nasdaq Follows Through On New Rally On Headline-Filled Day For The Market
BY JONAH KERI
INVESTOR'S BUSINESS DAILY
Posted 2/13/2008
The Nasdaq followed through Wednesday, banking big gains on a headline-filled day.
The tech-laden index jumped 2.3%, closing at its intraday high.
The Dow industrials and S&P 500 both rose 1.4%. The NYSE composite gained 1.2%.
Volume rose by less than 1% on the Nasdaq compared with Tuesday's level. NYSE volume eased 7%.
The Nasdaq's action met IBD's standards for a follow-through rally confirmation. A few rallies have started with only slightly higher volume on a follow-through. The August follow-through showed marginally higher trade. It triggered a lucrative rally, one that delivered big gains for many leading stocks.
Every bull market has started with a follow-through — a major price gain in higher volume than the prior session, on Day 4 or later of a rally try. However, not every follow-through yields a bull market.
What does that mean for you? Don't rush back into the market waving cash around recklessly. Only a few top-rated stocks have broken out of bases. You'll want to see more positive action from leaders to bolster the fledgling rally.
Don't pile into stocks that are bouncing off their bottoms. The last thing you want to do is buy a load of bottom fish on full margin in a few days. That kind of impulsive trading behavior leaves you vulnerable to a market pullback, and some painful losses.
If and when breakouts occur, trade wisely. Start by taking a half position in a stock. You can fill out the rest of your purchase if the stock proves its mettle. Say you have $10,000 to invest in a high-quality stock that's breaking out of a base. Buy $5,000 worth of shares as the stock crosses its optimal buy point in heavy volume. If it rises 2% from there, buy another $3,000 worth of shares. If it rises a bit more, you can round out your position with the remaining $2,000.
With such a disciplined approach, you'll only increase your exposure if the market is indeed working.
To be sure, there are plenty of reasons to be cautious. For one, the correction lasted just over three months, which is not a lot of time to reset the broad market for a sizable uptrend. We also haven't seen major rotations among industry groups. Steel and fertilizer stocks are right back on top.
If you didn't use the market's correction as an opportunity to build a watch list of buy candidates, it's not too late. Use IBD and Investors.com to troll for top stocks setting up in sound price bases. If you find a stock that's a new name, rather than some old leader trying to make a comeback, even better. By doing the research ahead of time, you'll be prepared when a breakout occurs.
A strong retail sales report got the market off to a fast start. Retail sales rose 0.3%, topping forecasts for a 0.3% decline. Sales excluding autos climbed 0.3%, beating forecasts for a 0.2% gain. President Bush signed the $168 billion economic stimulus package, which the White House hopes will help stave off a recession. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson also said the government would use "aggressive action" to help homeowners hurt by the subprime mortgage crisis. Federal Reserve chief Ben Bernanke is scheduled to testify before a Senate committee on banking and housing Thursday.
Late in the day, word that News Corp. (NWS) was considering an alliance with Yahoo (YHOO) helped stoke a finishing kick for the market. The prospective deal would reportedly spin off Fox Interactive Media, which includes popular social networking site MySpace and other assets, into Yahoo in exchange for a stake in Yahoo. The deal would be worth about $15 billion. Yahoo recently rejected a $44.6 billion buyout bid from Microsoft. (MSFT) The software giant is reportedly mulling a sweetened offer.
Meanwhile, several individual stocks also lifted the broad market. Chip equipment maker Applied Materials (AMAT) reported a surge in orders for machines that make flat-screens. The company also got a boost from rising demand for solar-power-related components. That sent its stock up 1.84, or 10%, to 19.91 in nearly triple its normal trade. Led by Applied Materials, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index surged 3%. First Solar (FSLR) topped Q4 earnings estimates by 24 cents a share. That sent its stock rocketing to a 30% gain in massive volume.
So is this the start of the next bull rally? Hard to say.
I asked the question on a previous post if January 23 was a climax bottom?
A 20% decline usually results in at least 1 test of that low.... But we didn't get it.
Not even close - Hmmm
Bull trap?
BY JONAH KERI
INVESTOR'S BUSINESS DAILY
Posted 2/13/2008
The Nasdaq followed through Wednesday, banking big gains on a headline-filled day.
The tech-laden index jumped 2.3%, closing at its intraday high.
The Dow industrials and S&P 500 both rose 1.4%. The NYSE composite gained 1.2%.
Volume rose by less than 1% on the Nasdaq compared with Tuesday's level. NYSE volume eased 7%.
The Nasdaq's action met IBD's standards for a follow-through rally confirmation. A few rallies have started with only slightly higher volume on a follow-through. The August follow-through showed marginally higher trade. It triggered a lucrative rally, one that delivered big gains for many leading stocks.
Every bull market has started with a follow-through — a major price gain in higher volume than the prior session, on Day 4 or later of a rally try. However, not every follow-through yields a bull market.
What does that mean for you? Don't rush back into the market waving cash around recklessly. Only a few top-rated stocks have broken out of bases. You'll want to see more positive action from leaders to bolster the fledgling rally.
Don't pile into stocks that are bouncing off their bottoms. The last thing you want to do is buy a load of bottom fish on full margin in a few days. That kind of impulsive trading behavior leaves you vulnerable to a market pullback, and some painful losses.
If and when breakouts occur, trade wisely. Start by taking a half position in a stock. You can fill out the rest of your purchase if the stock proves its mettle. Say you have $10,000 to invest in a high-quality stock that's breaking out of a base. Buy $5,000 worth of shares as the stock crosses its optimal buy point in heavy volume. If it rises 2% from there, buy another $3,000 worth of shares. If it rises a bit more, you can round out your position with the remaining $2,000.
With such a disciplined approach, you'll only increase your exposure if the market is indeed working.
To be sure, there are plenty of reasons to be cautious. For one, the correction lasted just over three months, which is not a lot of time to reset the broad market for a sizable uptrend. We also haven't seen major rotations among industry groups. Steel and fertilizer stocks are right back on top.
If you didn't use the market's correction as an opportunity to build a watch list of buy candidates, it's not too late. Use IBD and Investors.com to troll for top stocks setting up in sound price bases. If you find a stock that's a new name, rather than some old leader trying to make a comeback, even better. By doing the research ahead of time, you'll be prepared when a breakout occurs.
A strong retail sales report got the market off to a fast start. Retail sales rose 0.3%, topping forecasts for a 0.3% decline. Sales excluding autos climbed 0.3%, beating forecasts for a 0.2% gain. President Bush signed the $168 billion economic stimulus package, which the White House hopes will help stave off a recession. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson also said the government would use "aggressive action" to help homeowners hurt by the subprime mortgage crisis. Federal Reserve chief Ben Bernanke is scheduled to testify before a Senate committee on banking and housing Thursday.
Late in the day, word that News Corp. (NWS) was considering an alliance with Yahoo (YHOO) helped stoke a finishing kick for the market. The prospective deal would reportedly spin off Fox Interactive Media, which includes popular social networking site MySpace and other assets, into Yahoo in exchange for a stake in Yahoo. The deal would be worth about $15 billion. Yahoo recently rejected a $44.6 billion buyout bid from Microsoft. (MSFT) The software giant is reportedly mulling a sweetened offer.
Meanwhile, several individual stocks also lifted the broad market. Chip equipment maker Applied Materials (AMAT) reported a surge in orders for machines that make flat-screens. The company also got a boost from rising demand for solar-power-related components. That sent its stock up 1.84, or 10%, to 19.91 in nearly triple its normal trade. Led by Applied Materials, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index surged 3%. First Solar (FSLR) topped Q4 earnings estimates by 24 cents a share. That sent its stock rocketing to a 30% gain in massive volume.
So is this the start of the next bull rally? Hard to say.
I asked the question on a previous post if January 23 was a climax bottom?
A 20% decline usually results in at least 1 test of that low.... But we didn't get it.
Not even close - Hmmm
Bull trap?
Saturday, February 9, 2008
Continental Oil.... Black Gold.... Texas Tea...
Weakness in Oil has me looking. I'm watching Continental Resources Inc. (CLR). They announce earnings Feb. 26, and appears to be some optimism.
I may buy close to 22 on the trendline with a pullback or if I see the RSI break above 50
CLR gave this presentation
at Merrill Lynch Global Energy Conference
November 7, 2007
http://library.corporate-ir.net/library/19/197/197380/items/269218/ML11_07_07presentationfinal2.pdf
Friday, February 8, 2008
Robots, Shirts that don't Stain and other Cool Stuff
In five years or so your personal robot will be the must-have gadget, among other tech toys
By JOEL GARREAU
The Washington Post
The gift gizmos that brightened the holidays this year — the telephone that is mostly screen, the tiny music player — were unimaginable not long ago.
So, as the future approaches, we wonder what our objects of desire will be in a year or five.
For answers, we turn to Paul Saffo, a veteran Silicon Valley forecaster who explores long-term technological change and its practical impact on business and society.
Saffo and his interlocutor know each other as members of the scenario-planning organization Global Business Network. In scenarios, a 20-year horizon is common. Five years is almost painfully short-range thinking.
So Saffo does not focus on astonishments likely to emerge from the research pipeline, like prescription memory drugs. Instead he concentrates on things that exist commercially today but have yet to explode into our consciousness. He looks for things that await the magic moment when mere technology is transformed into objects of raving desire.
The Washington Post
The gift gizmos that brightened the holidays this year — the telephone that is mostly screen, the tiny music player — were unimaginable not long ago.
So, as the future approaches, we wonder what our objects of desire will be in a year or five.
For answers, we turn to Paul Saffo, a veteran Silicon Valley forecaster who explores long-term technological change and its practical impact on business and society.
Saffo and his interlocutor know each other as members of the scenario-planning organization Global Business Network. In scenarios, a 20-year horizon is common. Five years is almost painfully short-range thinking.
So Saffo does not focus on astonishments likely to emerge from the research pipeline, like prescription memory drugs. Instead he concentrates on things that exist commercially today but have yet to explode into our consciousness. He looks for things that await the magic moment when mere technology is transformed into objects of raving desire.
Q. What do we not know we want yet, that we’re going to find out we do want in the next five years?
A. It’s robots. Very simple, very clear. In the ’80s we created our computers. In the ’90s we connected them together. In this decade we’ve been hanging sensors on them — eyes, ears. All they need are wheels, and they become robots. It is increasingly affordable.
Q. So “The Jetsons” was right?
A. You mean Rosie the Robot? Not quite. We have the technology. The thing missing is the big idea. We want to confer life and intelligence on everything. We want to see fairies under trees. We want to believe that rocks can talk. And that’s why we are just delighted when our electronics act in a lifelike form. For teenage boys, I guarantee you within five years the thing everybody is going to want is going to be a telerobotic UAV (unmanned air vehicle).
Today’s radio-controlled fliers are hard to use because you have to learn how to fly them. But when your helicopter is a robot, it flies itself and you just tell it where to go — no learning curve, just instant gratification. Imagine a flying bot that costs $200 or less, is the size of a paperback book, and teenage boys can …
Today’s radio-controlled fliers are hard to use because you have to learn how to fly them. But when your helicopter is a robot, it flies itself and you just tell it where to go — no learning curve, just instant gratification. Imagine a flying bot that costs $200 or less, is the size of a paperback book, and teenage boys can …
Q. Terrorize their sisters?
A. Terrorize their sisters or look at the sunbathers in the pool next door.
Q. Can you see our cars becoming robots?
A. You can push a button now and they park themselves. We’re going to keep piling more smarts into automotive telematics. The robots increasingly will advise you. Then there will be a tipping point — the insurance company is going to require the robot drives.
Q. What about our clothes?
A. The double-knit-suit thing of the next five years is nano finishes on fabrics. (Nanotechnology involves the manipulation of objects as small as molecules.)
Q. You think they’re actually going to take off?
A. Clothes that don’t stain, that you can spill a glass of red wine on and laugh at — I think that’s going to catch on a lot more. We have nano fabrics today, but nobody’s done anything really fun with them yet.
Q. Wait a minute. If they don’t get stained, does this mean that geeks are going to wear them for like four months straight without washing them?
A. This is what’s terrifying. You know the fabrics with the embedded nano silver? A couple of athletic gear companies have these fabrics — the embedded silver kills the bacteria that makes them smell.
Q. So these shirts will never be washed.
A. Every new thing comes with a hidden curse. It was Heraclitus who told us that. Another place where nano stuff comes in is new kinds of fabrics with wildly new finishes. Things that look like chatoyant rainbows. You know the kind of rock called tiger’s-eye, how it kind of shimmers when you look at it? That is the quality of chatoyant. Having really interesting surfaces. Having fabrics that the artwork changes on them.
Q. Robots, nano fabrics. OK, what else we got?
A. Phones are fashion.
Q. Is that going to produce a want?
A. The want has already happened, and people just don’t realize it. You no longer replace your old phone with your new phone because the old phone is broken. You replace it because you’re bored with the finish.
Q. What’s so complicated about enamel?
A. It’s not enamel. It’s the highest of high tech. What we’re going toward is phones that have chameleon finishes, that have active surfaces that change shape and color. You know, mood phones.
Q. And we are going to want chameleon phones?
A. We’re just going to want something new. Whether it’s a chameleon phone that changes its colors based on the conversation going around it, or the music that’s playing on it, or it becomes all screen, it’s not the specific thing we want. What we just want is something new. So phones become hyper-fashion. Electronics are fashion. The same thing with finishes on cars. Electrochromic stuff where you can actually change the color of the car. Very popular with thieves.
Q. What about our social lives and connecting up to people? Social networking? Are there going to be any big new wants?
A. The big thing that will be in fashion is being disconnected. Seriously. When being connected is hard or takes a fancy device, being connected is hip. When pagers first came out, if you had a pager it meant you were a cardiac surgeon or an arms control negotiator. Now it means you’re a maid at the Hyatt. So when connectivity becomes as easy as it is, the hip thing is to be unconnected. It will cost money. We will depend on sort of an electronic concierge that’s vigilantly watching our phone calls and e-mail, mediating between you and the rest of the world.
Thursday, February 7, 2008
ATVI - Earings tonight
Check out ATVI CC at 4:30 EDT.
I'm hearing they will announce the new "go to market" stratgey with Vivendi.
If your familiar with Salesforce.com (CRM), it's the same model - download/rent the game, pay a monthly fee for however long, then stop when you're done. CRM went from selling software to subscription based use for standard apps and programs and their stock exploded.
Why pay $60 for a game when you can "rent" it for $10 per month, then drop it when your done/bored. It's freeking brilliant. It will change gaming and you'll see more revenue coming as more games are tried.
This may also be the begining of the end for the folks at Gamestop (GME).
Anyone remember Blockbuster?
Gamers typically get 10-15% trade credit at GME, and the gamers feel ripped off, everytime they trade in.
Disclosure: Long ATVI (no duh!)
I'm hearing they will announce the new "go to market" stratgey with Vivendi.
If your familiar with Salesforce.com (CRM), it's the same model - download/rent the game, pay a monthly fee for however long, then stop when you're done. CRM went from selling software to subscription based use for standard apps and programs and their stock exploded.
Why pay $60 for a game when you can "rent" it for $10 per month, then drop it when your done/bored. It's freeking brilliant. It will change gaming and you'll see more revenue coming as more games are tried.
This may also be the begining of the end for the folks at Gamestop (GME).
Anyone remember Blockbuster?
Gamers typically get 10-15% trade credit at GME, and the gamers feel ripped off, everytime they trade in.
Disclosure: Long ATVI (no duh!)
Tuesday, February 5, 2008
Short Blog to Read.......
Tim Knight may be a perma-bear, but he has been spot on with his calls (puts?):
http://www.slopeofhope.com/
Trader-Talk says tomorrow (Wed) will Gap up - then dump based on a huge amount of Puts being bought by retail. Hmmm.........
My thoughts are we will test the lows and bottoms are a process, not an event (quote via Brian Shannon) - No reason to think long here, at least for the short term.
http://www.slopeofhope.com/
Trader-Talk says tomorrow (Wed) will Gap up - then dump based on a huge amount of Puts being bought by retail. Hmmm.........
My thoughts are we will test the lows and bottoms are a process, not an event (quote via Brian Shannon) - No reason to think long here, at least for the short term.
Monday, February 4, 2008
Was Jan. 23 a Global Climax Bottom?
IOO is an ETF representing the S&P Global 100 - the 100 largest corporations in the world.As I was playing around with different views I found a new 3 yr. trendline created with the Jan. 23 drop that also coincides with 61.8% fibb level.
Given that it's a recent low, it "bears" watching, though.
Also of note is IOO is a thinly traded proxy.
Still.... sometimes optimism pays
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